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Prediction for CME (2023-09-11T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-11T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26859/-1
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is the M-class flare and associated eruption from AR 3429 (N09E58), seen as brightening and ejecta in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2023-09-11T01:07Z. Also seen in SDO AIA 171 and as dimming in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-14T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26864/1
Model Inputs:
2023-09-11T01:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-58.0, Lat.=27.0, Speed=624.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2023-09-11T07:33Z
2023-09-11T05:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-59.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2023-09-11T17:18Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-14T01:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-12T15:30Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-13T21:30Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 55.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-09-11T17:43Z

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